Martha and Raila: The Teflon Duo?
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It used to be that you need a generation – about 30 years – to reinvent yourself and make people forget or misremember your past. Raila Odinga and Martha Karua, Azimio’s presidential candidate and running mate duo, have, apparently, shown us that all you need is half a generation.
In 1997, Raila contested the presidency, though unsuccessful, on the platform of good governance and constitutional democracy. Yet, a mere 15 years earlier, he had been arrested and detained for being one of the leaders of a coup that attempted to overturn, unconstitutionally and by violent means, the lawfully constituted government of the day.
Today in 2022, Martha Karua is sold as the champion of democracy and ethical governance; the heroine of the second liberation. Yet, a mere 15 years ago, in 2007, when she was Justice and Constitutional Affairs Minister in Kibaki’s Cabinet, she played a starring role in the hurried swearing in – at night no less – of the late Mwai Kibaki as the president of Kenya; an action that drove Kenya to the precipice of total collapse following the post-election violence that ensued.
Today these two politicians, who are being vigorously promoted and facilitated by the State using taxpayer money, stand on campaign podiums and decry uporaji wa mali ya umma (looting of public resources.)
Today in 2022, Martha Karua is the same person who, 15 years earlier in 2007, vehemently opposed minimum reforms demanded by the Opposition ahead of the elections later that year.
How do supporters of Martha and Raila who know these facts resolve this clear dissonance? When I point out this dissonance and contradiction, the majority will perform such fantastic mental gymnastics as make angels weep. Typically, they will say these are different times; the Martha and Raila of today are not the same people of the post-election violence period of 2007 and the 1982 coup d’etat respectively. MarthaRao wa leo si wa jana; wa leo ni bora! The MarthaRao of today are better people.
When I hear this, I quickly take the cue and ask the question: if Martha and Raila changed from being bad people to good people, why not extend the same benefit of doubt to Gachagua and Ruto and expect them to also change? Confronted with this trap, these supporters of MarthaRao (matharau) attempt a side-step and engage in moral relativism: yes, MarthaRao are not perfect, but they are more perfectly imperfect than GachaguaRuto (chagua ruto)!
This is all very interesting and may even make for riveting drama as we watch the human mind perform fantastic and paradoxical contortions, if the consequences were not life-changing and long-lasting.
In this election the choice should not be based on whether you like a person or not; it ought to be about which side has a credible plan and a good chance of implementing it so that your life is impacted positively. On that score, the choice should be very clear. The Kenya Kwanza coalition does not just have a Manifesto; they have a credible Plan. And because William Ruto is younger and ambitious, we can safely conclude that it will be in his interest to implement the Plan as a means of earning a second term. For Raila, in contrast, the Presidency is a destination in a long journey of struggle. He will most likely be contented to simply arrive at his destination.
It is also true that a Ruto government is likely to be more stable, with a clear, hierarchical command and control structure. In contrast, a Raila Presidency will have to contend with a former President who, as Chair of Azimio Party, will seek to influence State matters. How Raila reacts to this alternative center of power will either be the source of great political instability, or the consolidation of forces of status quo. Either way, Kenya can ill afford it given the complex challenges facing the country, including the debt repayment crisis and the real threat of a Sri Lanka-like situation. There is also the time bomb of youth unemployment.
As we approach the election day less than a week from today, let us avoid the emotional ‘I-love-this-person’ trap. Focus instead on your own interests. Vote for the candidate who is likely to transform the economy to your benefit regardless of whether you like him or not.
